Indiana based transport research company, FTR, has reported that December US trailer net orders rebounded sharply from November, rising 86 per cent month-over-month (m/m) to 24,282 units.
Despite the strong sequential increase, orders were down 4% year-over-year (y/y) and well below the 10-year December average of 33,623 units.
FTR said in its December reporting that the month-on-month rebound, led largely by the dry van segment, likely reflected a combination of factors, including deferred orders from September through November; efforts to get ahead of potential tariff-related cost pass-throughs. and an anti-dumping and countervailing-duty investigations into van trailers imported from Canada, China, and Mexico.
Improved visibility for fleet capital-equipment planning following November clarity around Class 8 tariffs and EPA 2027 NOx regulations as well as early signs of stabilisation in spot freight markets were likely contributing factors, the research company said.
Despite these positive signs, it is premature to declare that a sustained demand recovery has begun, FTR declared.
“A more durable, growth-oriented ordering environment is unlikely to emerge until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability show meaningful improvement,” it said.
Overall, FTR found that full-year US trailer net orders for 2025 totaled 173,144 units, up 5 per cent y/y, largely reflecting demand that was deferred ahead of the November 2024 election and subsequently pushed into early 2025.
More telling, however, is the current read on the 2026 order season. September-December 2025 orders declined 20 per cent y/y despite December’s notable sequential improvement, FTR reported.
“In response to low backlogs and weak demand, US trailer production fell further in December to its lowest level since September 2010,” FTR reported.
Total build declined 13 per cent m/m and 6 per cent y/y to 11,801 units as OEMs continued to curb output.
December also marked the first time since March 2025 that orders exceeded production, lifting backlogs 16 per cent m/m to 84,501 units. However, backlogs are down 21 per cent y/y, highlighting how subdued the order environment has been.
The backlog/build ratio improved to 7.2 months, offering modest near-term production visibility.
“Whether this improvement is sustainable will depend on order trends into early 2026,” reported FTR.
FTR Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles, Dan Moyer, said: “The US trailer market is increasingly constrained by policy-driven cost inflation and trade uncertainty, which are now the primary forces shaping pricing and demand.
“Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and downstream products, including heavy-duty cargo trailers and key components, have established a durable higher-cost base with little prospect of near-term relief.
“The potential for higher van trailer costs due to the antidumping investigation also might already be influencing sourcing and pricing decisions.
“Overall, entrenched tariffs and unresolved trade actions are likely to keep demand cautious and costs elevated, reinforcing selective purchasing and a stronger focus on total cost of ownership.”
ACT Research said December 2025 was more of a case of survival for the trailer industry.
The Indiana-based research company found that preliminary net trailer orders for December enjoyed a massive rise, with orders up nearly 13,400 units from November’s 11,900-unit level, a 112 per cent month-to-month increase, it reported.
At 25,300 units booked in December, order intake was almost 5 per cent above December 2024’s level.
Seasonal adjustment (SA) in the annual order cycle then lowered the monthly tally to 18,600 units.
“Sequentially, a slight uptick in net orders was expected, as December is usually the second strongest order month of the annual cycle,” said ACT Research Director CV Market Research & Publications, Jennifer McNealy.
“That said, preliminary data showed new vehicle demand for power units jolt awake in December, and those same factors of a firmer economic foundation, December’s weather-induced spike in freight rates, increasingly aged fleets, and some level of tariff-related clarity are also in play for trailing equipment demand.
“December’s tally brings the Q4 net order total to 53.4k units and closes 2025 with 172.1k units of trailing equipment ordered, about 6 per cent more trailers than were requested in 2024.
“While a better year than 2024, concerns about the level of economic activity that drives transportation demand, still-weak, although improving, for-hire carrier profitability, and uncertainty about future government policies remain as challenges to stronger trailer demand in the near term.”
However, with cancellation rates, as a percentage of backlog, the December numbers painted a more subdued picture, ACT Research found, with a a more subdued 1.8% versus November’s 2.5% rate.
“Data continued to show elevated cancellations in the van and tank segments,” said Jennifer McNealy.
“The highest cancellation rates came from the tank segments, attributed to a decline in oil/gas activity. Bigger backlogs and a lower December build rate conspired to push the backlog-to-build ratio higher for the first time in 2025.
“Backlogs started the year at 7.5 months and trended lower from there. December’s 4.4-month ratio commits the industry into Q2’26.
“End-of-2025 challenges continue as the trailer industry enters the new year, and opportunities in early 2026 remain thin.
“Positively, freight rates are now rising and the need to replace aging equipment continues to build. Pent-up replacements are expected to improve demand later this year.”
Read about developments in North America’s logistics sector.
