FTR Transportation Intelligence has reported that US trailer net orders weakened in November, falling 19 per cent month-over-month (m/m) to 13,071 units.
This drop equated to a 45 per cent year-over-year (y/y) plunge, highlighting the fragility of demand as October’s seasonal lift proved short-lived, FTR said.
Order volumes remain well below historical norms, pressured by tariff-driven trailer cost increases, soft freight demand, tight margins, and limited confidence in near-term rate recovery.
The sharp y/y drop suggests fleets are deferring discretionary replacements deeper into 2026 and possibly 2027, with growth-oriented ordering is unlikely until freight fundamentals and fleet profitability materially improve, FTR said.
ACT Research reported that the preliminary net trailer orders in November were 4,100 units lower than October’s 17,100 level, a 24 per cent month-to-month decrease.
At 13,000 units booked in November, order intake was 37 per cent below last November’s level.
ACT Research said that seasonal adjustment (SA) at this point in the annual order cycle lowers the November monthly tally to about 10,500 units. This preliminary market estimate is typically within ±5 per cent of the final order tally.
For 2025 to date, FTR found that net trailer orders total 148,862 units, which is up 7 per cent y/y.
“However, as we have noted previously, part of 2025’s y/y gain results from demand early in the year that normally would have occurred in 2024 as many fleets held off until after the November election,” the FTR report said.
“A more meaningful comparison period is the 2026 order season. September-November 2025 orders are down a concerning 28 per cent y/y.”
US trailer production pulled back in November, FTR said, with trailer builds dropping 23 per cent m/m – roughly twice the typical seasonal decline – and edged 1 per cent lower y/y to 13,533 units.
“Despite the pullback, production continues to run ahead of demand as OEMs manage labor levels, fixed-cost absorption, and year-end capacity utilization,” the research firm said
“As a result, backlogs were down 1 per cent m/m and 23% y/y to 72,697 units, but the backlog/build ratio improved to 5.4 months due to the larger m/m drop in production than in orders.
“Additional production cuts likely will be needed to prevent further backlog erosion unless the 2026 order season improves meaningfully.”
FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles, Dan Moyer, said: “The U.S. trailer market is increasingly constrained by trade policy, elevated input costs, and cautious fleet behavior.
“Policy-related actions are now a central driver of both cost inflation and demand uncertainty. Limited visibility on trade outcomes continues to complicate pricing, sourcing, and capital allocation decisions across the industry.
Moyer said Section 232 tariffs remained the industry’s most significant and durable cost headwind, with trade risks also building around van trailers.
“A US International Trade Commission anti-dumping and countervailing-duty investigation into van trailers and subassemblies imported from Canada, China, and Mexico adds further uncertainty for cross-border supply chains and pricing dynamics in the high-volume van segment,” he said.
“Overall, tariffs and expanding trade actions are locking in higher costs and sustained uncertainty across the US trailer market. OEMs and suppliers likely will respond by prioritizing localised sourcing, tariff-aware design, and flexible pricing.
“Dealers must manage inventory carefully and set clear expectations as higher price floors constrain demand. For fleets, rising acquisition costs and policy risk favour selective ordering, longer trade cycles, and a sharper focus on total cost of ownership.”
ACT Research Director CV Market Research & Publications, Jennifer McNealy said of the dipping November figures: “Sequentially, a slight dip in net orders is expected, as October is usually the strongest order intake month of the annual cycle, with order boards for the next year beginning to open.”
“November’s tally brings the year-to-date net order total to 151.3k units, or 9 per cent more net orders than were accepted through year-to-date November 2024.
“Not only do net orders continue to underwhelm, cancellations remain elevated. Looking forward, concerns about moderating economic activity, ongoing weak for-hire carrier profitability, and ambiguous government policies remain as challenges to stronger trailer demand.”
“While pent-up demand is building, and fleets will eventually need to divert capex to trailing equipment purchases deferred over the past few years, stronger revenues will be needed before the purchase spigot is opened wider.”
Read more about the roller-coaster ride of US trailer orders.
