US playing the freight blues

The US’s ongoing freight recession will continue into 2026, according to trucking research company, ACT Research.

The Indiana-based research firm said the extended freight slump was mainly due to US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and their legality.

The issue of the tariffs’ legality revolves around the question of whether they can be lawfully imposed without the approval of the US Congress.

The Supreme Court has previously ruled that federal agencies can’t make major changes without the approval of Congress, citing the ‘major questions’ doctrine.

ACT’s vice-president and senior analyst, Tim Denoyer said the US tariffs are continuing to operate as a ruling by the US Court of International Trade on reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs was stayed.

“We think international trade is a major question, particularly for trucking, driving 16 per cent-25 per cent of US surface freight volume,” said Denoyer.

“With a historic backlog on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, but no appeal of the stay at this point, it’s not likely to be decided before the court takes a few months off soon.

“But if the eventual appeal is successful, it could reduce US import tariffs from around 20 per cent currently to a high single digit percentage.

“At least significantly delaying these tariffs by sending the issue to Congress would improve the outlook for goods demand.

“By contrast, the Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, currently 50 per cent, are on firmer legal ground, which is affecting equipment supply. Both have significant implications for freight markets.”

A recent report published by the American Transportation Research Institute relating to the operational costs of trucking found that carriers were operating their logistics businesses on slim margins.

It found that, from 2023-2024, all sectors of the US trucking industry, apart from LTL, had operating margins under two per cent.

The report found that in an unstable transport industry, “Carrier profitability suffered across all industry sectors”.

More pain for the US trucking industry has come in the form of ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.

It found that, for May 2025, final North American Class 8 net orders reached 13,000 units, which was a 45 per cent drop, year on year.

“Entering the weakest period seasonally for new business, Class 8 orders continued to decline in May, as weak fundamentals and broad uncertainty pressure demand,” said the company’s Research Analyst, Carter Vieth.

“Unsurprisingly, tractor orders fell 43 per cent y/y, to 8,439 units. Vocational truck orders fell 48 per cent y/y, totalling 4,584 units.”

Regarding medium duty (MD) truck sales, Carter Vieth said: “Total Classes 5-7 orders fell 27 per cent y/y to 14,264 units.

“MD orders have slowed across the past six months, as current bloated inventories and a weaker economic outlook weigh on new orders.”