Class 8 truck sales across North America continued to slide in September and October, according to data from transportation forecast researchers, ACT Research and FTR Transport Intelligence.
Final North American Class 8 net orders totalled 20,666 units in September, down 44 per cent year over year, as published in ACT Research’s latest State of the Industry: NA Classes 5-8 report.
“This was the weakest September for orders since 2019 as tariffs, carrier profits, and regulatory limbo continue to drive industry uncertainty,” said ACT Research Analyst, Carter Vieth.
“Worryingly, the new §232 on imported trucks risks onerous cost increases come at a time when industry demand is already under pressure.
“For-hire carriers remain stuck contending with the longest freight downturn in recent history, and private fleets have pulled back.
“While capacity is starting to exit the market at a quicker clip, a necessary evil for spot rate improvement, softening demand in the short term will counterbalance tightening supply.
As a result, the Class 8 tractor orders totalled 12,654 units, down 26 per cent year over year.
Vieth said Vocational Class 8 orders totalled 8,012 units, down 60 per cent y/y, compared to September 2024’s record vocational order of about 20,000 units.
The Vocational market continued to be affected in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and regulations, he said.
With respect to Classes 5-7 medium duty trucks, Vieth said: “Orders fell 19 per cent year over year to 16,133 units.
“MD orders have slowed notably this year, as still-elevated inventories, a weaker economic outlook, and notably increased consumer pessimism weigh on MD demand.”
ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, Tim Denoyer, said overall, Class 8 tractor production is set to decline about 35 per cent from 1H to 2H 2025.
This would fall to a rate “several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size,” he added.
“In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time,” said Denoyer.
Class 8 truck and tractor orders for October reached 24,300 units, an 18 per cent monthly increase, but a 22 per cent year-over-year decline, extending annual declines to ten consecutive months, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence.
According to FTR Transport Intelligence data, Class 8 total orders stood at 230,543 units over the last 12 months up to October 2025.
October orders fell short of the 10-year average of 31,198 units, with FTR noting that fleets continued to defer replacement cycles and expansion plans due to several “headwinds”, including weakening freight demand, excess capacity, high interest rates, tariff volatility, tariff-related uncertainty, unclear regulatory direction, and narrowing profit margins.
While both the vocational and on-highway segments posted monthly improvements, the on-highway market saw the largest annual decline, which FTR noted indicates fleet reluctance heading into 2026.
Early signals for the 2026 ordering cycle confirm a cautious outlook, said FTR commercial vehicles senior analyst, Dan Moyer.
“Combined net orders for September and October are 32 per cent below year-ago levels, highlighting persistent weakness in freight fundamentals and limited carrier profitability,” he said.
October’s sequential improvement likely reflects targeted selective replacement purchases rather than a return to growth investment, he pointed out.
For OEMs and suppliers, Moyer said order trends are expected to remain volatile until freight volumes and rates strengthen.
For now, fleets are prioritising “cost control and asset utilization over growth, delaying a meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions stabilize.”
Addressing new tariff measures on heavy-duty trucks taking effect this month, Moyer said. “[It] will raise costs but is less severe and more targeted than expected. USMCA carve-outs, offsets, and the delayed parts tariff created a measured policy that encourages reshoring and strengthens North American supply chains.”
“Some production appears to be already shifting towards U.S. assembly, though expanding capacity will take time. Overall, the framework aims to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on Asia while leaving room for future policy adjustments,” Moyer said.
The preliminary North America net orders in October for Classes 5-8 trucks declined by 17 per cent, year over year to 40,000 units, ACT Research reported.
“Preliminary Class 8 orders totalled 24,500 units in October, down 21 per cent year over year, a notably weak number when you take into consideration October is seasonally the strongest month for orders with a 25 per cent seasonal factor,” said Carter Vieth.
“This is the time of year when next year’s backlogs get built.
“Rising costs, still weak spot rates, and ongoing uncertainty continue to hamper for-hire carriers, and as a result, have led to a muted order season to date. Additionally, private fleet demand has slowed after recent expansion.”
Medium duty vehicle sales (Classes 5-7) decreased 11 per cent y/y to 15,500 units, ACT Research found.
“Economic uncertainty and rising consumer pessimism continue to weigh on Classes 5-7 demand,” said Vieth.
Additionally, private fleet demand also cooled following recent fleet expansion, he said.
Read about other tough news impacting North America’s trucking industry.
