In what could be described as a candid speech at this year’s Advanced Clean Transportation expo in Las Vegas, JB Hunt Transport Services President, Shelley Simpson, told attendees that it is estimated the US would have to increase its electricity production by 40 per cent to charge all registered vehicles in the country.
“Who’s willing to give their electricity up to power their home, for us to charge our entire fleet?” she asked the audience. “Imagine what it would take to power all the electric vehicles in the US, in addition to all the passenger vehicles.”
That’s not to say Simpson was all doom and gloom. In fact, quite the opposite. She reiterated that clean energy is a positive movement that the industry needs, but in order for it to reach its overarching goal of reducing transportation-related emissions, something had to change.
“We have pressures that we’re all facing, and those pressures are affecting our businesses, our decisions, and the future of our industry,” she said. “The reason that we’re feeling this tension is because there’s a misalignment of sustainable technology, policies to regulate emissions, and an economic case for incorporating emerging technology.”
According to a recent US study, it is the economic case that Simpson points to that will be the biggest hurdle.
The report, Forecasting a Realistic Electricity Infrastructure Buildout for Medium- & Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Vehicles, is from Roland Berger and released by the Clean Freight Coalition (CFC). The CFC is an alliance of transportation stakeholders committed to clean energy within America’s commercial vehicle industry.
It has consistently held the position that policymakers must address the cost concerns and infrastructure hurdles to make an electrified supply chain function smoothly.
According to the report, the charging infrastructure required to electrify all medium and heavy-duty vehicles and charge point operators in the US, is expected to cost $620 billion USD.
In addition to this, onsite charging infrastructure for the medium duty segment is forecast to cost $496 billion USD, however heavy-duty vehicles call for more significant infrastructure – an average investment of $145,000 USD as opposed to $54,000 USD per medium duty vehicle.
A further $69 billion USD is needed for reliable on-route charging for high mileage vehicles. Meanwhile, long haul vehicles would need a dense highway charging network at a cost of $57 billion USD, although this development would be constrained by the capabilities of the transmission grid infrastructure.
To support local charging demand from medium and heavy-duty electric vehicles, the utilities would need the equivalent spend of investments and upgrades previously made over the past 15 years – $370 billion USD.
Much of the pressure fleets are feeling comes, in part, from a combination of rigid deadlines at both the state and federal levels in the form of the California Air Resources Board’s Advanced Clean Fleet rule and US Environmental Protection Agency’s latest emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles.
In response, the report highlights the need for greater cross-industry collaboration in regards to electrification.
It recommends a phased electrification approach with an initial focus on the medium duty segment, which would then be followed by technology and infrastructure improvements for heavy duty and long haul.
Another consideration for industry is to be open to alternative decarbonisation routes especially when investment in electrification in some instances may be prohibitive.
Other ideas include exploration of operational and fleet management strategies, potential for freight rate increases due to lack of government and regulatory support and potential for bottlenecks in unmanaged charging demand.
The report found that while medium duty vehicles will face fewer roadblocks, economic and operational constraints make electrification very challenging for the heavy-duty segment. Furthermore, the study outlined the significant improvements in battery range and charging infrastructure capabilities that would be needed to support a path for the electrification of long-haul vehicles.
Roland Berger Senior Partner, Dr Wilfried Aulbur, said fleets will need to look at how they operate and adjust, industry and government need to cooperate and there needs to be an ‘openness’ to alternative technology paths to decarbonising the heavy-duty segment.
“It also is clear that an industry with a yearly turnover of about $800 billion USD and a profit margin around 5.0 per cent cannot invest $620 billion USD without financial support or a significant increase in freight rates,” he said.
CFC Executive Director, Jim Mullen, said the report thoroughly examines the issues surrounding the infrastructure buildout necessary to electrify commercial vehicles.
“Also, it clearly shows how the heavy-duty vehicle industry’s needs are vastly different not just from other sectors of our economy, but from each other.”
American Trucking Associations President and CEO, Chris Spear, said the industry is facing an unfunded $1 trillion USD mandate that carries enormous consequences for the American consumer.
“You don’t overcome obstacles by ignoring them, which this study lays out the high investment costs required to electrify the commercial vehicle industry,” he said.
“Policymakers should take note that pursuing technology-neutral solutions can deliver operational savings and emissions reductions at a fraction of the cost. A real-world understanding of the path to our shared goal of zero emissions is needed, but unrealistic timelines and expectations will break the bank.”
American Truck Dealers President, Laura Perrotta, said dealers are faced with inadequate charging infrastructure and delays, despite investments of nearly one billion in this decade to sell and service electric vehicles.
“This study puts into perspective the enormous national commercial charging needs and related costs required to meet the Administration’s regulatory goals,” she said.
NATSO President and CEO, Lisa Mullings, said the report demonstrates that policy must not depend on a single technology to reduce carbon emissions from commercial trucks.
“Investing in the necessary charging stations to fuel commercial trucks is expected to require $620 billion USD from truck stops, fleets and ultimately consumers,” she said.
“To raise that kind of capital, we need to overcome the many challenges impeding businesses’ ability to recoup these vast investments. This report underscores the critical need for policymakers to incentivise the existing low-carbon fuelling options available today, including renewable diesel and biodiesel, while the industry implements longer-term options.”
National Tank Truck Carriers, President and CEO Ryan Streblow, said the report reinforces the tank truck industry’s concerns on the current aggressive and unrealistic regulatory approach to zero emissions.
“We will continue to face major electrification concerns in the tank truck industry – excess weight, limited range, and safety,” he said.
“The tank truck industry is our nation’s insurance policy when natural disasters strike. Before flipping a switch, we need to ensure there is a scalable and affordable energy source in place to allow the tank truck industry to serve those when they need it the most. The Roland Berger data is a clear indication our legislators and regulators need to work with the trucking industry to effectively develop and deploy a sustainable long-term solution.”
This point was one Simpson also focused on in her address, demonstrating that everyone getting on the same page is crucial.
“When state requirements and federal requirements do not align, and they’re not consistent, it does create additional issues with interstate operations and commerce, and the innovation required to meet these regulatory requirements,” she said.
For its part, JB Hunt recently announced an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emission intensity by 32 per cent by the year 2034, focusing on alternative power equipment, biogenic fuel and improved fuel economy.
One of the biggest challenges related to this move forward is the operational inefficiencies associated with battery-electric trucks, according to Simpson, which includes reduced payload capabilities, range, and charging time when compared to operating a diesel truck. These inefficiencies would result in the necessity for the JB Hunt team to add more zero-emission vehicles to perform the same amount of work that’s currently being performed with their diesel trucks.
“It’s not economically viable to incorporate zero-emission vehicles into our fleet at scale right now, but it is important that we begin to test and the pilot these technologies,” said Simpson, highlighting another concern — an inadequate charging infrastructure for commercial vehicles and the necessary power supply to support it.
Speaking at the same event, Ryder System CEO Robert Sanchez concurred, stating that in order to place a bigger bet on electric vehicles, there needs to be a catalyst that makes the technology more economically and operationally feasible for the commercial trucking industry.
During his keynote address, he said the only way commercial electric vehicles could possibly work is with a large-scale battery technology breakthrough, using the cell phone industry evolution from 1984, as an example.
“We need an inflection point that’s a credible technology breakthrough, that serves as a catalyst for mass adoption of new technology,” said Sanchez.
“Like the cell phone, we need electric vehicle costs to come down. We need smaller, lighter, and more powerful battery technology to improve the range and capacity. And like cellular networks, we need a nationwide infrastructure. We need the fastest applicable charges available where professional drivers can conveniently charge their trucks get a bite to eat and rest at the same time.”
.png){kind=small}
