A consulting group has reported heavy trailer demand in Europe’s West will increase during the 2026-28 period and eventually match the historic peaks of 2008 and 2018.
This follows CLEAR International’s February 2025 forecast for the West European heavy trailer market.
A positive development, according to the group, is the announcement in February 2024 of another cut in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB). The main rate is down to 2.9 per cent. Other countries not in the eurozone that have also cut rates are the UK, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland.
Both France and Germany’s demand for new trailers were slightly lower than expected in 2024 so the forecast for Western Europe has been lowered by 3.4 per cent in 2025. Again, this mainly affects the outlook for France and Germany. Trailer demand in Spain was stronger than anticipated in 2024 and as a consequence the forecast for Spain has improved.
Growth in the forecast period will bring the trailer sales level close to that of 2022 by 2027. This year is expected to be more positive in terms of both the West European economy and trailer registration growth with trailer demand increasing by more than 10 per cent on the tail of two negative years which saw demand fall by 20 per cent in total.
After a strong trailer production recovery in 2021-22 from the impact of Covid-19, output was reportedly flung into reverse in 2023-24. Not only were West European registrations in 2024 more than 10 per cent below the level of 2023, but in addition, the large numbers of West European trailers that were previously exported to Russia (and Belarus) have been severely cut back or stopped altogether.
Instead, most of the trucks now sold in Russia are thought to be supplied from China. In addition, China has huge capacity for the manufacture of trailers and can easily supply demand previously met from European sources. This particularly affects large exporters in Germany and elsewhere in the West European region.
Meanwhile, demand for road transport in the Western Europe (measured in tonne-km), having fallen by 4.0 per cent in 2023 was estimated flat in 2024, with the prospect of an increase in 2025.
The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for January 2025, designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, showed that the CLIs for the UK, Italy, Germany and Spain are all just over the trend level, while France is just below trend, which equals 100 on the index. This, according to CLEAR International, suggests there will be an improvement in the economic growth of the four economies over 100 in the next six months with France following slightly later.
“After a fall of just over 20 per cent in 2023/24 period, trailer market sales will recoup just over half of that loss in 2025,” said CLEAR International Director, Gary Beecroft.
“Subsequent years will remain close to the expected market trajectory, eventually matching the historic peaks of 2008 and 2018.”
According to CLEAR International, 77 per cent of all goods in Europe are moved by road and most of that proportion is transported in a trailer.
In other news, SAF-Holland has shared its latest financial results.
