An applied research organisation in Germany, Fraunhofer ISI, has analysed the future cost development of emission free heavy vehicles and examined costs for key components from more than 200 sources.
A drop and battery and fuel cell cost would reportedly enable rapid market diffusion and contribute to the achievement of national and international climate goals.
Battery electric trucks, according to Fraunhofer ISI, are the most promising and cost-efficient technology in many applications which has led to recommendations for industry and politics to quickly focus on building up production capacities, a nationwide charging network including expansion of the power grid and regulations for emission free trucks.
“The necessary reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in road freight transport requires a rapid transition to zero-emission trucks,” said Fraunhofer ISI.
“However, it is currently unclear how quickly and with which technology this transition will take place. This is also illustrated by the lively debate about the role of battery-electric trucks and fuel cell trucks, especially in heavy road freight transport.
“At the same time, infrastructure expansion, network expansions, adjustments to the product portfolio, CO2 regulations or possible subsidies require a lot of time and money. However, such uncertainties should not delay measures or investment decisions in new technologies.
“Against the background of limited public budgets, this leads to the question of prioritising promising technologies, especially in the transition from funding research and development to market launch, which is associated with significantly higher expenditure.”
To further advance the debate, researchers at Fraunhofer ISI investigated the future cost development for key components – especially batteries and fuel cells – of zero emission trucks in a study recently published in Nature Energy.
For this purpose, different cost developments from the literature were used in a meta-analysis and discussed with regard to robustness, temporal stability and level of ambition. Finally, the determined cost developments were compared with target costs for the technological breakthrough according to other studies and embedded in a total cost calculation (TCO) to compare the costs of battery-electric trucks and fuel cell trucks compared to diesel trucks for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040.
The results show that the costs of battery and fuel cell systems for heavy trucks will fall much faster than expected in previous studies.
The study predicts that battery system costs will soon fall below EUR 200/kWh and could fall to EUR 100/kWh in the late 2040s. Likewise, the costs of fuel cell systems are likely to fall significantly in the late 2030s – to around EUR 150/kW – although forecasts are subject to greater uncertainty due to lower commercial maturity and doubts about the feasibility of target costs. The authors of the analysis emphasise the major challenges in realising both the high-cost reductions and technical advances for both technologies quickly and in practice.
“Based on current knowledge, battery electric trucks are certainly the most promising technology for achieving at least the cost level of today’s diesel trucks,” said Fraunhofer ISI.
“At the same time, they also require less financial support than fuel cell trucks, which are likely to have to contend with hydrogen shortages and high prices.
