ACT Research hosted its 74th commercial vehicle outlook seminar, entitled “Market Vitals: The Current & Future Health of the Industry”, to discuss the current and future state of the industry.
Day two of the two-day seminar featured an economic panel including David Teolis, Chief Economist at ACT Research; Mazen Danaf, Lead Economist at Uber Freight; and Patrick Manzi, Chief Economist at NADA.
Teolis shared that ACT Research’s baseline economic scenario is for “strong growth the first half of the year but concentrated in AI investments and high-income consumers, employment growth to remain low, inflation to slow toward 2 per cent, and the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points”.
Other topics discussed during the panel included manufacturing expansion, tariffs, English language proficiency rule, nondomiciled CDL rule, peak season tightness, and Winter Storm Fern/Gianna.
Day two also featured ACT Research analysts—Tim Denoyer, Ken Vieth, Carter Vieth, Steve Tam, and Jennifer McNealy— who presented the current market data and forecast for freight, Class 8, Classes 5-7, and trailers.
“The for-hire freight cycle is getting ready to turn. Capacity contraction should drive demand. Tighter capacity plus the longest downturn this century equals a shift from late cycle to early cycle,” said Tim Denoyer.
Regarding the Class 8 market, Carter Vieth shared, “Despite the recent spot rate surge, carrier profitability remains weak. Fleets still lack capex but expect improvement in 2026. The Class 8 forecast has increased on the better-than-expected economy heading into 2026, surge in spot rates, EPA’27 clarity, and the surge in December orders.”
ACT Research Director–CV Market Research & Publications, Jennifer McNealy, said: “Trailer customers have skipped buying cycles, but remain hesitant and concerned about pricing. Fleets are balancing capex between power and trailing equipment ahead of EPA’27.
“OEMs are navigating subpar demand at the start of 2026 with continued uncertainty while looking for opportunities.”
According to the February 2026 issue of ACT Research’s State of the Industry: U.S. Trailers report, end-of-2025 challenges remained on the horizon as the trailer industry entered 2026.
“Cancellations gyrated between earth and outer space through most of 2025, before returning to a more subdued rate, 1.8 per cent as a percentage of backlog, in December. The new year opened with a still elevated but more stable 1.6 per cent rate in January,” said Jennifer McNealy.
“Data continued to show elevated cancellations in the dry van and tank segments.
“For a second consecutive month, net orders significantly outpaced build, pumping some life into the anaemic backlogs on the books through most of 2025.
“Backlogs rose more than 18 per cent sequentially, or about 12k units, ending January at 75,500 units.”
“As we move into 2026, the trailer industry faces relatively weak demand/order activity, financing concerns, tariffs known, the uncertainty of tariffs to come, weak carrier profits and still low freight volumes, in a period of constrained capital spending balanced against high input costs.
“However, the uptick in net orders the past two months has built the backlog queue and given industry leaders reason to believe that 2026 could be the year of transition that everyone has been hoping to have.”
About Classes 5-7, Steve Tam said: “The medium-duty market is set to emerge from decline in 2026.
“Having gradually slowed in 2025 on tariffs and sagging consumer sentiment, recent order improvement is likely a reflection of continued consumer spending, cautious optimism surrounding the economic outlook, and some regulation-driven dealer stocking.”
The next ACT Research Market Vitals Seminar will be held on 19-20 August 2026.
Read about Kuehne+Nagel’s latest acquisition in Germany.
.png){kind=small}
